heat

An attribution study by World Weather Attribution (WWA) concludes that the heatwaves in Europe and North America this July would have been "almost impossible" without climate change. Over the past few weeks, southern Europe, parts of the United States, Mexico and China have experienced severe heatwaves with temperatures exceeding 45 °C. The WWA report notes that in China the heatwave was at least 50 times more likely due to the climate crisis.

The heat waves that took place in Europe during the summer of 2022 were associated with more than 61,000 deaths on the continent, more than 11,000 of them in Spain. These are the results of a modelling study published in the journal Nature Medicine and led by ISGlobal researchers.

From May to August 2022, 157,580 deaths were recorded, 20.5% more than in the same months of 2019, before covid. This increase in mortality was mainly among people aged 75 years and older. Of the causes of death directly related to the heat, heat stroke and dehydration stood out. These are some of the provisional data published by the National Statistics Institute (INE) in relation to deaths in 2022. Covid-19 was the most frequent cause of death, with 31,559 people dying, 20% less than in 2021.

Heat waves and other events accentuated by climate change affect health, especially for the most socially vulnerable people. To counteract these effects, mitigation and adaptation plans for cities are designed based on scientific evidence, the implementation of which belongs to the local political sphere. Two experts in urban health and climate governance analysed these problems and their possible solutions in a briefing organised by SMC Spain.

Climate change made the late April episode of record temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula, Morocco and Algeria 100 times more likely to occur, with temperatures up to 3.5°C higher than they would have been without the climate crisis. This is one of the conclusions of an attribution study conducted by World Weather Attribution.

The hydrological, meteorological and agricultural drought that is being experienced in Spain, especially in some regions, comes after a 2022 that was the warmest and one of the driest since records have been kept. Researchers Sandra García Galiano (UPCT) and Annelies Broekman (CREAF) participated in an informative session of SMC Spain in which they analyzed the causes, consequences and possible solutions to face this complex natural phenomenon.

The current situation is only the beginning of what may come in the coming decades, which should lead us to increase efforts in mitigation and adaptation strategies: more green and shaded areas, energy efficiency in buildings and avoiding working outdoors in extreme temperatures.

The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has reported that, from Tuesday, the progressive entry of a mass of very warm and dry air of African origin over the peninsula and the Balearic Islands will cause exceptionally high temperatures for this time of year, with values typical of summer. According to AEMET, during Thursday 27, the threshold of 30 ºC is likely to be exceeded throughout the southern half, as well as on the banks of the Ebro. On the other hand, 35 ºC is likely to extend to the Guadalquivir valley in Córdoba and Jaén. During Friday it is possible that 35 ºC will be exceeded in the banks of the Ebro in Zaragoza and other points of the southern half, in addition to the Guadalquivir valley, where the maximum temperature values could be around 38-40 ºC.

Since records have been kept, the year we are about to end has been the warmest in Spain. Added to this is a severe meteorological drought and the numerous and powerful wildfires that we record in summer. Adapting our society to these extreme events as a consequence of climate change should be a top priority.

A study published in Science Advances estimates that economic losses due to heatwaves caused by climate change between 1992 and 2013 exceeded $5 trillion. Moreover, lower-income countries were more affected than richer regions.