Reacción a "Reactions: 50% chance of warming exceeding 1.5°C within seven years"

The Global Carbon Project's assessments of global emissions and carbon budgets every year for more than a decade have provided us with a methodologically consistent recent historical series. We are now able to see how the alternation between El Niño and La Niña can affect the amplitude of changes, but we still see that emissions continue to grow.  

Despite decreasing uncertainties in the biological sinks (terrestrial and ocean sinks), large uncertainties remain in their estimates. Although not conclusively due to large uncertainties and large inter-annual variability, it is observed that the terrestrial sinks continue to increase, while the ocean sink appears to have slowed down in recent years. Deforestation remains the largest source of emissions from the land-use sector, with Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo being the largest emitters.  

The carbon budget available to limit global warming to 1.5°C and 2°C has been reduced to 275 GtCO₂ (gigatonnes of CO₂) and 1,150 GtCO₂ respectively since the beginning of 2024, which is equivalent to about seven and 28 years assuming 2023 emission levels. 

This exercise and its continuous improvement, as well as the incorporation and cross-checking of the best available knowledge, are very important in capturing the overall progress of mitigation actions, while allowing us to detect possible variations resulting from climatic events and disruptions of the carbon cycle, including those due to the impacts of climate change itself on biological sinks.