Autor/es reacciones

Galderic Lastras

Geologist and professor at the Faculty of Earth Sciences, University of Barcelona

The earthquake had a magnitude of 7.8 and its hypocentre was located at a depth of about 18 kilometres, which is relatively shallow for an earthquake of this magnitude. In general, the shallower the depth, the greater the intensity felt at the ground surface, and the greater its effects on the population.  

According to the analysis available from the U.S. Geoological Survey (USGS), the rupture occurred over more than a hundred kilometres on one or more vertical, directionally moving, SW-NE oriented faults, most likely in the eastern Anatolian fault zone, with cumulative displacements of up to 3 metres along the fault. (It should be remembered that, although an earthquake is symbolised by a dot on a map, this only represents the point at which a larger rupture has been initiated along a given fault plane.) 

This fault zone connects the Arabian plate and the Anatolian subplate. This is the largest instrumentally recorded earthquake on this fault zone, although the Aleppo earthquakes of 1138 (estimated magnitude 7.1) and 1822 (estimated magnitude 7.0) have been historically documented. The main earthquake was followed, as usual, by numerous aftershocks, the largest of which occurred 11 minutes later with a magnitude of 6.7. While other large aftershocks could occur in the short term, their frequency and magnitude are expected to decrease over time.  

According to USGS loss estimation models (based on recorded intensities and characteristics of the area) the damage that could have occurred is very substantial. Natural hazard is the product of the probability of the occurrence of a potentially damaging natural mechanism and the expected damage. The expected damage depends on the exposed elements (population, buildings, infrastructure, etc.) and their vulnerability. In this geographical border area, which already has a high probability of high-magnitude earthquakes, there are several factors that increase vulnerability, such as the presence of an additional population displaced by the war in Syria, living in unsafe constructions and with enormous difficulties in covering their most basic needs. Very often, conflicts with displaced populations increase the damage of natural disasters, and unfortunately this is a clear example. 

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