Ernesto Rodríguez Camino

The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has reported that, from Tuesday, the progressive entry of a mass of very warm and dry air of African origin over the peninsula and the Balearic Islands will cause exceptionally high temperatures for this time of year, with values typical of summer. According to AEMET, during Thursday 27, the threshold of 30 ºC is likely to be exceeded throughout the southern half, as well as on the banks of the Ebro. On the other hand, 35 ºC is likely to extend to the Guadalquivir valley in Córdoba and Jaén. During Friday it is possible that 35 ºC will be exceeded in the banks of the Ebro in Zaragoza and other points of the southern half, in addition to the Guadalquivir valley, where the maximum temperature values could be around 38-40 ºC.

As rising temperatures melt glaciers, meltwater can accumulate and form lakes nearby. These bodies of water represent a natural hazard because of the floods they cause if they overflow. Researchers have estimated that 15 million people are at risk from these floods, and more than half of them live in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru and China. The research is published in Nature Communications.

Research published in Science assesses for the first time quantitatively the climate projections made by scientists at oil company Exxon and ExxonMobil Corp between 1977 and 2003. According to the study, most of their projections accurately predicted warming consistent with subsequent observations. However, the authors point out that the company's public statements contradicted its own scientific data.

Since records have been kept, the year we are about to end has been the warmest in Spain. Added to this is a severe meteorological drought and the numerous and powerful wildfires that we record in summer. Adapting our society to these extreme events as a consequence of climate change should be a top priority.

Although in 2020 the covid-19 pandemic caused confinement and economic paralysis in many countries, the rate of methane growth in the atmosphere peaked, reaching the highest level since 1984. Research published in Nature claims that the main source would be the warmer, wetter wetlands of the northern hemisphere.

After two long weeks of negotiations and outside the official deadline, COP27 has reached an agreement to create a loss and damage fund to help the most vulnerable countries face the impacts of the climate crisis. However, other issues such as greater ambition in mitigation strategies to avoid exceeding 1.5ºC of warming and less dependence on fossil fuels have not achieved the commitment of all parties. 

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) today releases its Global Carbon Budget 2022 report. The main conclusion is that there is no sign of a decrease in global CO2 emissions and, at current levels, there is a 50 % chance of exceeding 1.5°C warming in nine years. The results will be published in the journal Earth System Science Data.

A study published in Science Advances estimates that economic losses due to heatwaves caused by climate change between 1992 and 2013 exceeded $5 trillion. Moreover, lower-income countries were more affected than richer regions.

This summer's monsoon rains in Pakistan are ten times heavier than usual and have already affected more than 33 million people. Some six and a half million are in need of humanitarian assistance, including more than 400,000 refugees. Pakistan's prime minister has called them "the worst in the country's history".

Research estimates that the rise in global average temperatures could approach 2 ˚C by 2050. The study, published in Communications Earth and Environment, estimates that by 2100 many people living in tropical regions will be exposed to dangerously high levels of heat on most days of the year. In addition, deadly heatwaves, which are currently rare in mid-latitudes, could occur every year in these areas.