Alejandro Caparrós
Professor of Economics at Durham University (United Kingdom), Research Professor at the Spanish National Research Council (CSIC) and Lead Author of the International Cooperation chapter of the IPCC's AR6
A transitional COP. The meeting in Dubai concluded by adopting the first global stocktake. The stocktake reminds us that much remains to be done, although it also recognises that progress has been made since the adoption of the Paris Agreement. If the nationally determined commitments (NDCs) are met, which remains to be seen, the world is heading towards a warming of between 2.1 and 2.8°C, instead of the 4°C we would be heading towards without these commitments. After arduous negotiations, at the mere mention of fossil fuels, the balance sheet also indicates that to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century the world must transition away from fossil fuels ("transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems"). A no-brainer if we accept the goal of zero net emissions by mid-century.
The agreement is only relevant in that it implies that the process initiated with the Paris Agreement is still alive and has passed its first step, its first stocktaking. This is not trivial, as the process initiated in Kyoto was interrupted when it came time to renew it for the first time, in Copenhagen in 2009. In the meantime, global emissions have continued to grow. The world needs short-term commitments and actions, we already have enough long-term commitments. In this area, COP28 has left us with a commitment to triple installed renewable energy capacity by 2030 and a modest increase in financing for developing countries.