Reacción a "Reactions: 50% chance of warming exceeding 1.5°C within seven years"

The Global Carbon Budget provides the most complete picture possible of the annual evolution of anthropogenic carbon emissions and their distribution between atmosphere, ocean and terrestrial vegetation. It has been published annually since 2006 and is the result of a synthesis effort by all the world's leading experts in the field.  

This edition reports, for yet another year, how CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels continue to increase, in this case by 1.1% compared to the previous year. Emission levels in 2023 are already 1.4% higher than in 2019 (pre-pandemic). Emissions due to land-use change (e.g. deforestation) are following an uncertain decline which, coupled with the upward trend in emissions from fossil sources and considered over the last decade, is starting to resemble a plateau in the trend of total emissions. However, it is important to note that the situation described in the Global Carbon Budget is far short of what would be needed to achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. The study estimates that, at current levels of global warming, the emissions of fossil fuels are likely to be much lower than those of fossil fuels.  

The study estimates that, at current emission levels, the 1.5°C global warming limit could be persistently exceeded in as little as seven years. The prospect of facing a period in the near future when global temperatures are above this limit is becoming increasingly certain. The only way to limit the intensity and duration of such a period is a radical acceleration in the implementation of energy transition policies to zero net emissions, followed by a rapid increase in the deployment of technologies to capture carbon from the atmosphere, which so far offset only one millionth of fossil CO₂ emissions.