Raffaele Bernardello

Countries’ current climate commitments fall short of the targets needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C this century, with a shortfall of more than 5 billion tonnes of CO₂ per year by 2050. This is one of the conclusions of the third edition of the report The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal. To offset this shortfall, the report estimates that carbon dioxide removal would need to grow at a rate comparable to that of the fastest clean energy transitions, such as solar power or electric vehicles. The report highlights that the world removes around 2.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere each year, almost entirely through land-based actions such as forest restoration. New technologies that use machinery or minerals to store carbon account for just 0.1% of total removal.

At the current level of emissions, there is a 50% chance that global temperatures will exceed the 1.5°C target consistently over seven years. This is one of the forecasts in the Global Carbon Budget 2023 report, which estimates that CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels will reach record highs in 2023, reaching 36.8 billion tonnes, 1.1 % more than in 2022. The report, published in the journal Earth System Science Data, shows that emissions have decreased in the EU as a whole and in the United States, while they continue to increase in India and China.