José Luis Lanciego
Senior Researcher of the Gene Therapy in Neurodegenerative Diseases Programme at the Centre for Applied Medical Research (CIMA), University of Navarra
A study carried out by Chinese researchers from different universities and research centres estimates an increase in the number of Parkinson's disease cases worldwide between now and 2050.
It has been estimated that in Western Europe the general population will increase by 3% by 2050, while in the same period of time the population over 65 years of age will increase by 100%. This inevitably leads to an exponential increase in the expected number of cases of Parkinson's disease, given that old age is the main known risk factor for Parkinson's disease.
The projections in this article are very important in terms of scaling up public and private healthcare systems, to the extent necessary, in order to provide the healthcare that is needed. Note that, in parallel, the expected high incidence of Parkinson's in the coming years will also entail a considerable social cost, stemming from the fact that the carers of such patients, especially those in advanced stages of the disease, are often first-degree relatives.
Among the data provided by this study, those corresponding to Spain are particularly striking, a country that currently has 200,000 diagnosed cases and is expected to reach an estimated 350,000 by 2050. In this way, Spain, which is currently in tenth place worldwide in terms of the number of diagnosed cases, will climb to eighth place by 2050. Neighbouring countries such as France, Germany and the United Kingdom are also in the top 10 in terms of the number of current and expected cases in 2050. Due to the total number of citizens in countries such as the People's Republic of China, the United States and India, these three countries occupy the first three places in this ranking. Emerging economies such as Indonesia and Brazil will reach important positions in the top 10 from 2030 onwards.
Because Parkinson's is considered an idiopathic disease (i.e. of unknown cause), it is difficult to implement preventive strategies against the disease. As the authors reflect in this article, the current and more pragmatic approach in research is to try to find neuroprotective treatments, designed to slow or even halt the natural progressive course that characterises the disease. This is the main approach adopted by numerous research groups around the world, as well as that of my research group at the Centre for Applied Medical Research of the University of Navarra, where we work with an eye on the unmet medical needs of our patients.
Finally, it is necessary to emphasise that Spain is among the leading countries in Parkinson's disease research, and that our public and private healthcare systems have numerous clinical specialists of international prestige.