Reacción a "Reactions to research warning of risk of more viral zoonoses due to climate change"

The appearance of a specific emerging infection is conditioned by multiple factors, among which population movements and global warming undoubtedly play a very important role. For years, work has been carried out on predictive models that help to take measures to reduce the impact of micro-organisms with the potential to cause disease in humans and/or other animals. In fact, we are currently experiencing the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and the pandemic potential of SARS-CoV has been warned for years.

The surveillance of micro-organisms present in the animal world and its arthropods (which is where the threats come from, analysed in conjunction with other factors), and their computational analysis allows the prediction of possible interactions between these and different animal species. We know that there are thousands of viruses in their animal reservoirs that have not yet interacted or, if they have, have not been able to adapt to their new host. This work by Colin Carlson's group at Georgetown University (Washington, DC, USA) estimates that by 2070, and in close relation to global warming, there will be at least 15,000 virus crosses with other species. This means that these viruses will be able to adapt and spillover will occur. Depending on the type of virus, it can then be transmitted from person to person or simply cause damage to that host, or small outbreaks. In the article they study the possibility of thousands of interactions between viruses and animal species in a 2ºC global warming scenario. 

It is well worth a read and especially worth raising awareness of the major problems arising from global warming. Only a "One Health" approach in which we take care of all aspects involved in the emergence and re-emergence of new infections can mitigate our uncertain future.