Josep M. Borràs
Scientific coordinator of the National Health System Cancer Strategy, director of the Catalan Oncology Plan and Professor of Preventive Medicine and Public Health at the University of Barcelona
The group of authors of the study is well known and respected, and publishes annually this type of mortality projection and analysis exercises. The work uses a well-established methodology.
The main novelty with respect to Spain is the increase in lung cancer mortality in women in a context of declining cancer mortality in general. The reason is the increase in tobacco consumption in women observed between the 70s and 90s of the last century, a period in which the increase in the onset of smoking in young women was very marked and which, in fact, was on a par with the onset of smoking in men. We are seeing the consequences 30 years later.
Now this increase has stabilized and shows a downward trend, so we can expect that in the coming years the observed trend will change in the direction of reducing lung mortality.
In summary, the observed trend is due to smoking trends.
The paper estimates its projections on the basis of observed trends and they are subject to error. However, the projection period is short and, therefore, this error is minor.