Cancer mortality will increase by 75% worldwide by 2050, according to a study
An international team has analysed cancer incidence and mortality worldwide using data available since 1990. Between then and 2023, there was an increase of almost 75% in deaths from this cause, with more than 40% of all deaths associated with preventable risk factors. Estimates indicate that by 2050 there will be a similar increase in mortality, due in part to the ageing of the population. The increase will be particularly pronounced in low- and middle-income countries. The results are published in The Lancet.
Josep M Borràs - estimaciones cáncer 2050 EN
Josep M. Borràs
Scientific coordinator of the National Health System Cancer Strategy, director of the Catalan Oncology Plan and Professor of Preventive Medicine and Public Health at the University of Barcelona
What do you think of the article overall? Is it of good quality?
‘The article is of high quality and has been produced in accordance with the usual methodology for this type of study. The authors are from an institution that is internationally recognised for this type of global estimation.’
How does it fit in with existing evidence and what new information does it provide? What implications could it have?
“There are two aspects to highlight:
- The countries where, in relative terms, the number of cancer cases will grow the most will be those with the lowest level of development. Therefore, these countries will face the challenge of cancer when they still have other infectious diseases as their main health problem. This is a very complex challenge to manage.
- The growth in the number of new cases will be very high as a result of demographic trends and existing risk factors, and we must make greater efforts in cancer prevention, along with improving the resources dedicated to diagnosis and treatment."
Are there any significant limitations to consider?
‘Those inherent in these estimates, which are based on demographic projections and do not take into account changes in risk factors (generally with a long-term impact and therefore only relevant at the end of the period) or treatments, but it is an internationally recognised and reliable methodology.’
GBD 2023 Cancer Collaborators.
- Research article
- Peer reviewed
- People
