Reacción a "Fossil fuel CO2 emissions will hit a new record in 2025, according to the largest carbon balance report"

The methodology used in the Global Carbon Budget 2025 continues to maintain the characteristic robustness that identifies this international consortium. This work involves atmospheric observations, ocean and terrestrial carbon balances, as well as updated estimates of land use and fossil fuels, which provide a robust and consistent picture of the global carbon cycle. In this sense, its main contribution can be considered to lie in its temporal continuity and improved treatment of uncertainties, which allows for the comparison of trends with a high degree of interannual consistency. The analysis confirms that fossil emissions peaked in 2024 (37.4 Gt CO₂), with partial declines in the US and the EU offset by increases in India and China.

The study highlights once again that, if current emissions continue, the possibility of exceeding 1.5 °C in the next decade is extremely high, thus demonstrating the urgency of drastically cutting fossil fuel use before 2030. Among its limitations, the team itself acknowledges the enduring uncertainty in net terrestrial fluxes and the estimation of emissions from land-use changes.

Coinciding with COP30, these findings underscore the idea that national climate commitments remain disappointingly inadequate to stabilize the climate. The report, which is a recognized benchmark, should serve as essential scientific guidance to inspire much more ambitious mitigation policies and a palpable acceleration of the global energy transition.