Patricia Córdoba Sola
Industrial pollution researcher, member of the Environmental Geochemistry and Atmospheric Research group (EGAR)
The report is an outstanding and comprehensive study evaluating the generation of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) and the associated flows at the end of its life cycle in Europe. It is based on the FutuRaM project, which provides the guidelines and methodological basis necessary for this purpose. Although the approach is rigorous and technically sound, some model assumptions, such as uniformity in product composition or theoretical estimates of critical raw material recovery, could limit the ability of these models to reflect the practical reality of WEEE generation and management in the different EU27+4 countries.
Firstly, the report presents key definitions of what is considered WEEE, its classification and the applicable regulations, in particular the European Directive, and includes numerical data on WEEE generation and recovery rates, based on the Global E-waste Monitor 2024. However, this introduction could have been enriched with an analysis of the causes behind the low recovery rates observed.
The core of the FutuRaM approach is the application of a stock and flow model, which quantifies the main statistical indicators of WEEE from its introduction on the market, through its active use phase, to its transition to end-of-life flows. By linking product composition data with WEEE flows and different recovery pathways, the model provides a balanced understanding in terms of mass of theoretical availability and losses of secondary raw materials over a time horizon extending to 2050. This offers valuable insights for optimising WEEE stream management, meeting future resource needs, reducing waste and promoting circularity in the EU27+4.
The FutuRaM methodology is based on a solid conceptual framework, aligned with international standards such as those of the UNECE (2022) and the E-waste Statistics Guidelines (Forti et al., 2018). Its structure integrates multiple analytical dimensions, from product composition to prospective waste management scenarios, providing a systemic and dynamic view of WEEE flows in Europe.
A notable element is the expansion of product characterisation through the hierarchical approach of the ProSUM project (European Commission, 2023), which allows products to be disaggregated according to UNU-KEY codes and their composition to be structured into mutually exclusive levels of components, materials and elements. This hierarchy improves the traceability and understanding of the distribution of critical raw materials, providing a greater level of technical detail to the model. However, this refinement coexists with a simplifying assumption: the uniformity of product composition across the EU27+4, which could limit the model's ability to reflect real differences between countries in consumption, technological structure, product availability or national recycling policies.
The flow model combines official data with the Weibull distribution to estimate WEEE generation, demonstrating a solid and consistent methodological basis; however, it would have been beneficial to explain the integration criteria in more detail in order to fully assess the traceability of the model. For its part, the waste composition modelling integrates the historical and technological evolution of products, allowing the composition of WEEE to reflect the mix of successive generations of appliances, which reinforces the representativeness of the analysis.
The recovery model provides theoretical estimates of the availability of critical raw materials, preserving the product-component-material-element hierarchy and applying transfer coefficients at each stage of treatment. It is a robust model for simulation and planning, but it does not incorporate unforeseen operational losses or constraints associated with product design.
Regarding future scenarios up to 2050, the model projects three possibilities:
- Business-as-usual (BAU): maintains current trends in consumption and WEEE generation.
- Recovery (REC): improves waste recovery without altering generation.
- Circularity (CIR): incorporates the circular economy, with more durable and repairable products and lower quantities of WEEE.
While these scenarios allow for the exploration of long-term impacts, their results depend on assumptions about consumption, product design and recovery efficiency.
Finally, the report highlights the need to improve the collection and recovery of critical materials, identifying significant losses during collection and emphasising the importance of improvements in product design and recovery technologies to maximise the availability of these materials.