Reacción a "Wildfire disasters have intensified since 2015"

Is the study based on solid data and methods? 

"Yes, partly. However, it includes regions with very different climates (boreal or temperate coniferous forests, Mediterranean forests, subtropical forests/Australia, etc.) as well as other socio-economic factors that may mask the results, such as population density (California or Greece vs. inland areas of northern Portugal in 2017 or 2025, along with inland areas of north-western Spain in 2025). The comparison with economic damage is very urban-biased and even cyclical, given the fluctuation of the property market. Overall, this is a very North American article whose conclusions are debatable in other parts of the world. 

It does not mention the fact that international forest fire statistics confirm a decline in the global area burned, which contradicts this study, although this reduction is occurring in developing countries." 

How does it fit in with previous work? What new insights does it provide? 

"The most innovative aspect of the article is the use of a wide variety of information sources, such as insurance and real estate damage claims, in an attempt to link them to climate change and the severity of fires. 

It cites the extinction paradox identified 20 years ago in a European research project (FIREPARADOX), according to which the more that is invested in firefighting, the more severe the fires will become in the short term due to the uncontrolled growth of forest biomass and its horizontal and vertical continuity. He recalls the wise use of controlled fire by both North American and Australian indigenous peoples." 

Are there any important limitations to consider? 

"Wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires have specific characteristics that need to be analysed separately from those that occur in much less populated areas. Attempting to analyse them together creates a high degree of confusion and obscures the issues. For example, the type of material used to build houses also has an impact, which is very different between the USA and the Mediterranean." 

How relevant is this study in practice in Spain? 

"It overlooks a key factor in Mediterranean conditions that is decisive, and which is often ignored from an environmental perspective, namely the abandonment of the land and its management — whether agricultural, livestock or forestry — together with the demographic decline of large rural areas. The dramatic rural abandonment that has taken place in the northern Mediterranean is not clearly reflected in “changes in land management”. Nor does the reference to the use of exotic species contribute much in the case of the European Mediterranean, and it also lacks scientific evidence. Here, it is not correct to talk about indigenous fire, although it is correct to talk about its recovery. 

The statement (p. 56) that disasters tend to occur more in highly populated and wealthy areas does not coincide with the experience in the Iberian Peninsula, despite being frequently cited in the article, especially in the worst recent years (2017, 2022, 2025). 

Another additional aspect is the express environmental regulations and social perception against cutting down trees, clearing land or carrying out controlled burning by a predominantly urban population and increasingly also by the tourism sector —which is often the last activity to remain in depopulated areas—, which ultimately exacerbates rural abandonment. As indicated above, analysing highly depopulated areas and purely peri-urban areas using the same methodology is not advisable for drawing solid conclusions."