Stefan Rahmstorf
Head of Earth System Analysis of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research & professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University
The work by Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen fits in with earlier studies looking with somewhat different methods and data sets at the issue of early warning signals.
The new paper comes to similar conclusions: there is still large uncertainty where the tipping point of the AMOC is, but the new study adds to the evidence that it is much closer than we thought just a few years ago.
As always in science, a single study provides limited evidence, but when multiple approaches lead to similar conclusions this must be taken very seriously. Especially when we're talking about a risk that we really want to rule out with 99.9 percent certainty. The scientific evidence now is that we can't even rule out crossing a tipping point already in the next decade or two.