José Miguel Viñas
Meteorologist at Meteored at www.tiempo.com and consultant for the WMO (Spain)
We can rely on attribution studies such as this one. The computing power of supercomputers means they can be carried out in a short time (days), which is also desirable, since if their publication takes too long (weeks or months) they lose media interest, although not as a tool for characterising the greater or lesser exceptionality of a given meteorological episode in the current context of global warming.
The study certifies something that was already intuited on those hot days in April, given the exceptional nature of the heat episode. The study not only makes it possible to attribute this episode to climate change, but thanks to the statistical analysis carried out and the climate simulation, it is able to quantify the (very low) probability of having temperatures in the region of 40ºC in April if we were to eliminate the global warming signal and it were only a consequence of atmospheric variability itself.
The main limitations of these studies are the climatological databases with which they work, thinking especially of records prior to the 1960s, as there were not so many available. Despite this, the confidence level of these studies is high.