Autor/es reacciones

Jonathan Bamber

Director of the Bristol Glaciology Centre, University of Bristol

This paper presents a careful and thorough analysis of how the AMOC responds to both extreme greenhouse gas and freshwater forcing that could result from accelerated fossil fuel consumption and increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Their analysis is based on examining 34 state of the art climate models and strongly suggests that the AMOC is not close to a tipping point for present-day and near-future climate. That is good news. While they find no evidence for a switch off or collapse of the AMOC they do find a weakening in all cases and this, alone, should be cause for concern. Because the AMOC is responsible for so much of the oceanic poleward heat transport, changes in its strength have a huge impact on the climate of northwest Europe and globally. 

A collapse of the AMOC would be devasting for civilisation so it is understandable that there has been a lot of focus on whether this might happen in the near future but a weakening of the AMOC should also be of concern. While it might not grab the headlines in the same way and its impact is a little more complicated to explain, it is still extremely important to model, understand, monitor and predict.

 

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