Autor/es reacciones

Jesse Abrams

Senior Research Fellow and one of the UK’s foremost experts in Physical Climate Risk at the University of Exeter

The removal of fossil fuel transition language from the COP30 draft represents a concerning reversal of the limited progress made at COP28. This backsliding comes at precisely the moment when our understanding of climate risks shows we have less room for delay than previously thought.

We’re already seeing floods, droughts, and extreme events intensifying globally, while systemic threats from potential tipping points in Earth systems loom larger. Current risk assessments systematically underestimate these dangers by failing to account for how climate impacts cascade through economic networks and can trigger irreversible changes in systems like ocean circulation.

As geopolitical fragmentation intensifies, particularly with shifts in US climate leadership, we’re likely to see climate action increasingly driven by coalitions of willing nations and industries rather than unified global frameworks. This diplomatic deadlock doesn’t pause the physical climate system. Each year of continued fossil fuel dependence locks in greater exposure to extreme events while increasing the probability of crossing irreversible thresholds - with profound implications for global security and economic stability.

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