Reacción a "Reactions to Pakistan's massive flooding episode "
Ernesto Rodríguez Camino
Senior State Meteorologist and president of Spanish Meteorological Association
Monsoons are a regime of winds that alternate during the year as a function of the differential warming of the land and the ocean. As the land warms more rapidly than the ocean in response to solar radiation, this differential heating leads to a rise in land-based air masses over land, generating an ocean-land circulation similar to the sea breeze regime. While sea breezes have a daily periodicity and are restricted to a small coastal strip, monsoons have an annual periodicity and their extension is continental. Associated with the wind regime is a precipitation regime that occurs when moist marine air is forced by the wind up the continental slopes with consequent condensation of moisture and generation of precipitation. Notably, the monsoon in the Indian subcontinent combines high solar radiation - being in tropical latitudes - with the large mountain ranges that separate the Indian subcontinent from the rest of the Asian continent.
Pakistan's recent exceptional floods are the result of a strong summer monsoon which, as every year, generously waters the region during the rainy season and which this year is not immune to exceptional warming associated with heat waves in the preceding months. The anthropogenic climate change in which we are immersed is predicting an increase in rainfall over the region, which will be greater the higher the average global temperature increase that is reached. In the absence of concrete studies to attribute the causes of this individual episode, the future will bring increasingly frequent and intense episodes like the current one.