Ernesto Rodríguez Camino
Senior State Meteorologist and president of Spanish Meteorological Association
Annual global carbon balance reports provide the most complete picture possible of the global carbon cycle in the climate system, both at the present time and showing temporal trends in its different components. The different components of the annual carbon cycle (emissions, accumulation in the atmosphere, sinks) are estimated using various methods that have different levels of uncertainty. While CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere is measured directly at a collection of reference observatories, both emissions and sinks are estimated using various methodologies (models, statistics, observations, etc.) and data sources that also allow their uncertainty to be estimated.
CO2 is the main greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and, therefore, its accumulation is largely responsible for the current anthropogenic climate change that manifests itself, in addition to global warming, in different ways such as an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, impacts on health and biodiversity, sea level rise, etc. A better understanding of the carbon cycle allows us to assess the extent to which our collective efforts are enabling us to slow down the climate change we are currently experiencing.
The conclusions of this study show us that we have practically reached the atmospheric CO2 concentration that will not exceed the 1.5 °C increase established in the Paris Agreement. It also shows how, globally, emissions are not being reduced and the decarbonization of energy systems is not progressing—with clear regional differences—at the necessary pace. Studies such as this one allow us to monitor the results of the efforts and policies implemented to slow climate change, showing that greater commitment and ambition are needed to substantially reduce the constant increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration, which is the cause of current climate change.