Ernesto Rodríguez Camino
Senior State Meteorologist and president of Spanish Meteorological Association
The increase in the frequency of rapid transitions between situations with opposite extremes of temperature and precipitation in a context of global warming has been recently discussed. In the case of precipitation, the increase in the frequency in which drought situations end with intense rainfall and vice versa has already been studied in other studies. In the case of this work on temperature, it has been shown that since 1961 the frequency, intensity and speed of rapid transitions between a situation of extreme high temperature and another of extreme low temperature and vice versa has increased. This behavior has been demonstrated over more than 60 % of the regions studied, with Western Europe being one of the most affected regions. The authors have also estimated how much this effect will grow under high emissions scenarios during the 21st century and the population that will potentially be affected.
This increase in abrupt changes between temperature extremes constitutes an additional challenge to adaptation, since the effects are clearly more negative when warming also shows strong oscillations between temperature extremes. Particularly affected may be the ecosystems and sectors most vulnerable to these strong temperature swings that leave very little room for adaptation. An example of this may be more frequent crop losses due to frost after a warm period that has resulted in early flowering or fruiting.
From the point of view of climate change communication, these sharp swings between temperature extremes that are superimposed on the general warming trend can be used to cast doubt on climate change, when in fact it is an additional negative effect that is superimposed on the background warming trend.