Ernesto Rodríguez Camino
Senior State Meteorologist and president of Spanish Meteorological Association
The fires that ravaged mainly the north-west of the Iberian Peninsula last August were exceptional, as indicated by the authors of the World Weather Attribution initiative, which conducts studies in near real time to determine the extent to which current anthropogenic climate change is responsible for the increase in their frequency and intensity. Although the study was based exclusively on observational data and did not use climate models, we can say that its conclusions are in line with similar studies in the Mediterranean basin. Compared to the pre-industrial climate and according to the authors, the current climate—with global warming of 1.3 °C—makes the weather conditions for the development of these fires in the north-west of the Iberian Peninsula about 40 times more frequent and 30% more intense.
The study determines the undoubted role of climate change in the development of these fires, as well as other extreme weather and climate phenomena such as heavy rainfall, droughts and heat waves, without forgetting the relevant role of other factors related to land use, depopulation, the availability of resources for prevention and extinction, etc. The ultimate cause of the increased frequency and intensity of this type of fire must therefore be attributed to rising greenhouse gas emissions caused mainly by the widespread use of fossil fuels, which are the main cause of current climate change. However, in addition to contributing to reducing emissions, societies must reduce their vulnerability by preparing to face this type of event, which will become increasingly frequent and intense. Both these fires and any extreme weather or climate event can become either an event with manageable consequences or a human disaster, depending on prevention, preparation and, ultimately, the reduction of the structural vulnerability of societies.