Belén Tarrafeta
Researcher in pharmaceutical policy at the Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp (Belgium)
The news itself comes as no surprise. Many analysts had already raised alarm bells about the short-term consequences. The US exit from the WHO will exacerbate funding shortfalls, given that the organisation already faces a considerable shortfall in meeting its responsibilities. It is important to understand that the WHO's responsibilities increase as new resolutions are adopted, many of which are passed without the necessary funding, and current operations must be maintained. This means that the global health gap will be even wider.
Moreover, the decision will deprive the WHO of US technical expertise and capacity in a number of scientific areas, at least through current channels. But the US will lose the opportunity to directly influence strategic and technical decision-making, including direct access to data, or influence policy decisions. This opt-out situation could have undesirable consequences for the US, although its immediate impact may not be obvious.
The big unknown is the response of other member states and their interest in maintaining a WHO that strengthens their leadership, or a WHO with diminishing capacity. And this opens up a range of possibilities and uncertainties, as many as there are geopolitical hotspots, because there is no single alternative vision to a US exit. At the moment there is much speculation, but few official statements about the intentions of other member states.
Finally, it is crucial to consider what Trump's strategy is regarding global health outside the WHO. It is necessary to ask whether this action is part of a broader withdrawal from other programmes, such as PEPFAR, GAVI, the Global Fund and other UN agencies, and whether his exit from the WHO marks the beginning of a new alternative strategy through other mechanisms, focused on other values, such as trade and security.