Autor/es reacciones

Anna Cabré

Climate physicist, oceanographer and research consultant at the University of Pennsylvania

One of the submissions points out that it is very likely that we are already within the 20-year window in which the average temperature will exceed 1.5°C, according to the scenarios we are observing. This trend can only be corrected by extremely drastic emission reduction measures. The other study mentions that having 12 consecutive months above 1.5°C anomaly indicates that it is very likely that we have already passed the 1.5°C threshold (the 20-year average). The studies are based on models calibrated with observations and natural variability.  

While we might think that an anomaly of 1.5°C in a single year should not cause alarm because next year the temperature may fall, these studies tell us the opposite: if we have reached that level this year, it is likely that we have already exceeded the threshold. Unfortunately, this means that the urgency intensifies. We do not want to go significantly above 1.5°C because, beyond that point, the consequences become enormously complicated, and the only viable solution right now is to drastically reduce emissions.

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